We’re kicking things off for November with UFC Sao Paulo, and there’s a handful of really fun fights on this lineup. There are 11 fights total after some late changes, and the card will be headlined by a heavyweight clash between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis. This will be Almeida’s biggest test since arriving in the UFC, while Lewis will have a chance to upset one of the rising contenders in the division. The lineup is heavily flavored with Brazilian talent as you might imagine, and I’m expecting some statement victories from several of them.

The weigh-in for the event was an absolute disaster, with four fighters missing weight for their respective bouts and two cancellations. The fighters who missed weight are Ismael Bonfim (159.5), Eduarda Moura (119.5), Victor Hugo (138.5), and Vinc Pichel (originally came in at 157, but made weight on his second attempt). Unfortunately, we lost the Pichel/Bonfim and Hugo/Marcos bouts from the card as a result of the misses involved. Moura/Ruiz will proceed with Moura forfeiting 30% of her fight purse.

My favorite picks on this card are Jailton Almeida, Gabriel Bonfim, Caio Borralho, and Vitor Petrino. I think all four of them have been given extremely favorable matchups, and while they all face solid competition, they should each have pretty clear paths to victory in their fights.

For my full breakdown of Almeida/Lewis, check out my WagerWire article on the main event, but I expect Almeida to wear out Lewis relatively quickly in this matchup and to find an early stoppage. Gabriel Bonfim has looked like a monster so far in the UFC, and I think he’ll be able to keep his 100% finish rate intact here with a submission win. I think Borralho will be able to weather the early danger from Abus Magomedov and wear him down in the latter rounds for a late stop or decision win. Petrino should be the more dangerous striker in his matchup with Modestas Bukauskas and think he will be live to find the knockout or to pick up the decision win.

My official betting card this weekend is fairly light, particularly with the late cancellations involved and the sportsbooks being a bit slower than usual to open prop markets. I have a pair of two-leg parlays, one straight bet on an underdog, and one prop bet for this weekend. The two parlays: Gabriel Bonfim Sub/Dec + Jailton Almeida R1/2/3 (+102) and Vitor Petrino KO/Dec + Borralho Sub/Dec (+173). The underdog I’m taking a shot on this week is Angela Hill (+115) to survive the early danger in her matchup with Denise Gomes. And I’m also taking a shot on Almeida by KO/TKO (+220). Each of those bets is for one-unit for a total of four units. Had some good luck last weekend with my read on the Tyson Fury-Francis Ngannou fight, so I also have a handful of parlays heading into the card that will need ML hits on various combos my favorite picks of the weekend to cash. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the fights!

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