The UFC is headed back to Abu Dhabi this weekend for UFC 294, and that means an early start time for the card here in the US (prelims start at 10am ET). We have 13 fights scheduled for the event, and despite two weight misses (Viktoria Dudakova and Mike Breeden), all of them are set to proceed tomorrow. Dudakova missed by 0.6 pounds and will be fined 20% of her purse, while Breeden missed by a more surprising 3.5 pounds and will be fined 30% of his purse. Despite some shakeups to the top of the card last week that saw changes to the main and co-main, this event has shaped into one of the better lineups of the year.

My favorite picks for this card are Khamzat Chimaev, Muhammad Mokaev, Magomed Ankalaev, and Islam Makhachev. I think all four have pretty favorable matchups (at least in these circumstances) and they all should have pretty clear paths to victory. Whether or not Kamaru Usman’s knees are compromised, I think Chimaev will be able to get him down to the ground in this one at some point, and I’m not confident Usman will get back up. I think there’s a good chance Chimaev can put Usman away in this one. Mokaev is one of the best prospects in the promotion and needs to get a statement win, and I think he’ll be able to here. Tim Elliot has been subbed five times in his career, and I expect Mokaev to find one in this matchup.

Ankalaev is the more durable fighter in his fight with Johnny Walker, and I think he’ll be able to weather any early danger that Walker presents before taking over and potentially getting a stoppage of his own. In the main event, it’s a situation where I’ll be picking and betting Islam Makhachev to win, but I’ll be rooting for Alexander Volkanovski to pull the upset. Given the short notice involved and his recent hand surgery, I’m just not sure I can see Volk getting more done than he was able to in the first matchup. I think Makhachev gets the win here via another decision or possibly even with a submission.

For betting this weekend, I have three parlays and four straight bets currently on my card with 4.75 units out. The three parlays are for one unit each: Ankalaev KO/Dec + Chimaev ML + Makhachev Sub/Dec (+195), Nurmagomedov ML + Aliskerov to Win U1.5 Rounds (+133), and Magomedov ITD + Mokaev Sub/Dec + Chimaev KO/Dec (+270 boosted to +324 on DraftKings). The straight/prop bets are: Mokaev by Sub (+225 for .5 units), Dudakova by Sub (+420 for .25 units), Chimaev by KO/TKO (+200 for .5 units) and Breeden ML (+220 for .5 units). Both the Dudakova and Breeden bets were placed before they each missed weight, however, I’m not particularly worried about either of the misses. Dudakova was just shy of the mark in her matchup, and Breeden is almost certainly fighting for his job in this one regardless of his weight.

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