The UFC returns later today after a weekend off with UFC Vegas 80. The card features 11 fights and will be headlined by a lightweight clash between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green. There were no major issues at the weigh-in for the event yesterday, with all 22 fighters successfully making weight, although there were a couple who seemed to struggle and looked like they might have had tough cuts (Morono and Maness).
My favorite picks for this card are Grant Dawson, Joe Pyfer, Drew Dober and Joaquin Buckley. I think all four of these fighters have matchups that are highly favorable for them, and they will all have pretty clear paths to stoppage wins or comfortable decisions. Joe Pyfer will have the size, age, and cardio advantage in his matchup with Abdul Razak Alhassan and should be able to get this one done in the latter rounds or on the cards. I expect Drew Dober to bounce back in this one with a TKO/KO or dominant decision over Ricky Glenn. Joaquin Buckley has looked great since dropping down to 170, and while I originally expected a close fight here, Alex Morono looked pretty terrible yesterday at weigh-ins. I think there’s a good chance Buckley can land a big shot and put him away here or pick up a decision via more damage caused. For my full breakdown and favorite bets for Dawson/Green, check out my WagerWire UFC Vegas 80 article.
Betting for this card could be pretty rough, with a majority of the matchups featuring either heavy favorites or seeing line flips during fight week. My best recommendation is to go prop hunting to look for better value with the favorites and my favorite potential upsets on this card are Phillipe Lins, Montana De La Rosa, and Bill Algeo. All three lines have flipped this week, and I caught the right side on two of them at plus money (Lins and De La Rosa). Algeo’s flipped on Thursday prior to weigh-ins, which is a bit of a red flag to me, but we’ll see how it goes. For my bets, I have three parlays and three prop bets. The three parlays are for one unit each and are as follows: De La Rosa ML + Pyfer ML + Dawson ML (+221), Lins ML + Dawson ML (+184), and Algeo ML + U1.5 rounds Cutelaba/Lins (+174). The first prop bet I have is for .5 units on Dawson by Submission in R2/3/4 (+310). The other two are .25-unit sprinkles on Pyfer by Decision (+600) and Lins by Submission in R1/2 (+1200).

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