The UFC returns to Boston tonight for the first time in four years and they’re bringing a loaded fight card headlined by two championship fights with them. In the main event, Aljamain Sterling will look to cement his status as king of the bantamweight division by defending his belt against Sean O’Malley. The co-main event will feature Zhang Weili beginning her second reign as UFC Strawweight champion when she defends her title against Amanda Lemos.

Although several matchups were altered or fell off the lineup altogether in the leadup to the event, thankfully, all 24 fighters successfully made weight yesterday without issue. Other than the two title fights, there are plenty of interesting fights on this card, including the return of Chris Weidman from a devastating leg injury and the two finals matchups for Season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter.

My favorite picks for today’s card are Ian Machado Garry, Zhang Weili, Gregory Rodrigues and Natalia Silva. Check out my UFC 292 WagerWire article for this week to find out more about how I see some of their matchups playing out, as well as my favorite bets for each of them. Since I didn’t cover Silva in the article, my favorite bet for her is to win in Round 3 or by decision. I think she will be much better than Andrea Lee on the feet in this matchup for a clear decision or late stoppage.

My favorite potential betting upsets are Sean O’Malley, Da’Mon Blackshear and Chris Weidman. Unlike most of the MMA community who seems to think O’Malley is KO or bust in this matchup, I think he has another potential route to victory. If O’Malley can weather the early storm Sterling is guaranteed to bring chasing takedowns, he should almost certainly be the better striker in the matchup and will likely cause more damage in their exchanges too. Assuming the judges are using proper criteria, I could definitely see O’Malley squeezing out a narrow decision if he doesn’t find the KO or get stopped early by Sterling.

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